Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM) AND APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are 0.5-1°C below average, i.e., indicative of weak La Niņa conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models suggest a return to ENSO neutral conditions in JFM (~65% confidence) and AMJ (~65-80% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa conditions are often associated with increased heavy shower activity and rainfall totals in the southeastern half of the Caribbean, as well as a (much) wetter secondary wet season in the coastal Guianas and a drier than usual early dry season in the northwestern Caribbean.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JUNE 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JFM, around normal ; AMJ, 80% normal to below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JFM, 80% normal to above normal ; AMJ, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a slight above normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.