Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD OKTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND) AND JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are around 1°C below average, i.e., La Niņa conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast more likely than not a transition to La Niņa conditions in OND (~60-70% confidence each, resp.), returning to ENSO neutral in JFM (~55% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa conditions are often associated with increased heavy shower activity, rainfall totals, air temperatures and Atlantic Hurricane Season activity in OND, as well as a (much) wetter secondary wet season in the coastal Guianas and a drier than usual early dry season in the northwestern Caribbean in JFM.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH MARCH 2026:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: OND, 75% normal to above normal ; JFM, around normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: OND, 85% normal to above normal ; JFM, 75% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a slight above normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.