Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD FEBRUARY, MARCH, APRIL (FMA) AND MAY, JUNE, JULY (MJJ), A Drought Warning is in effect.

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: SSTs in the east-central Pacific shifted from borderline weak El Nino levels (~0.5C above average) to ENSO neutral by early January, meaning ENSO neutral conditions are still in place.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models favor ENSO neutral conditions to persist during FMA (with 60-70% confidence) and possibly maintain ENSO neutral through MJJ (55-65% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ENSO neutral phase offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in any part of the Caribbean, leading to diminished skill of and confidence in seasonal forecasts at this time. Conversely, uncertainy in the seasonal forecasts increases with ENSO-neutral conditions.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JULY 2020:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: FMA, 75% for normal to below normal; MJJ, 75% for normal to below normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: FMA, 80% for normal to above normal; MJJ, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2020:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2020 a near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.