Climate Outlook Aruba

PERIOD SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON) AND DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY (DJF). .

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent weeks, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) have fluctuated around average, meaning neutral El Niņo conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models, suggest temperatures to remain around average by SON and DJF, thus favouring neutral (65-70% and 55% confidence for SON and DJF, respectively).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ongoing ENSO neutral state will have little effect on rainfall or temperatures.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH FEB 2018: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: SON, 80% for normal to above normal; DJF, 85% for normal to above normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: SON, 80% for normal to above normal; DJF, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.