Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) AND JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS).

What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific have risen from La Niņa to near average (ENSO neutral conditions) by mid-March.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models indicate ENSO neutral conditions are likely in AMJ (80% confidence) and either remaining so in JAS (30-40% confidence), or possibly transitioning to El Niņo conditions from then onwards (55-65% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: ENSO neutral offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in the Caribbean, but a transition into El Niņo more often than not is marked by a delayed onset of the wet season and a drier summer season, resp.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2023:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: AMJ, around normal; JAS, 80% normal to below normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 75% normal to below normal ; JAS, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2023:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023 a near normal season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.