Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ) AND FEBRUARY, MARCH, APRIL (FMA)

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent months, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) have increased to around 0.4°C above average, meaning warm neutral ENSO conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest ENSO conditions to evolve into a weak or moderate El Niņo (with 70-90% and 65-90% confidence for NDJ and FMA, respectively).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: An El Niņo state will tend to tilt the odds to drier conditions with less shower activity, except in the Bahamas and parts of the Greater Antilles (particularly Cuba), where wetter conditions become more likely. Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niņo signals.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH APRIL 2019:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 80% normal to below normal; FMA, around normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 85% for normal to above normal; FMA, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2018:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 a slightly below normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.