Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ) AND FEBRUARY, MAART, APRIL (FMA).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: A strong El Niņo event which peaked in December in the eastern equatorial Pacific ended in May, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) having anomalously cooled to -0.5°C by September.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast more likely than not La Niņa conditions (~55-75% confid.) in NDJ and more likely than not a return to ENSO neutral conditions by FMA (~50-65% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa conditions are often associated with increased heavy shower activity, rainfall totals, air temperatures and Atlantic Hurricane Season activity in NDJ, as well as a (much) wetter secondary wet season in the coastal Guianas and a drier than usual early dry season in the northwestern Caribbean in FMA.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH APRIL 2025:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 80% normal to above normal ; FMA, 80% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 75% normal to above normal ; FMA, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2024:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be an above-normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.