Climate Outlook Aruba


Climate Forecast

What influences the next season? El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent months, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) warmed to slightly above average.

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest warm-neutral ENSO conditions during MJJ (55% confid.) and, possibly, El Niño conditions by ASO (70% confid.). Note: ENSO models have a notoriously hard time predicting ENSO at this time (i.e. the ‘spring predictability barrier’).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: With current neutral ENSO conditions, little effect on rainfall or temperatures is expected. However, if El Niño manifests by ASO, odds are in favour of hotter conditions and less hurricane activity than usual, as well as drier weather with less extreme rainfall (except in northern-most parts of the region).

FORECAST VALID THROUGH OCT 2017: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 75% for normal to below normal; ASO, 75% for normal to below normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 80% for normal to above normal; ASO, 90% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 a slightly below normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.