Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) AND JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Weak La Niņa conditions have emerged in December 2024, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) having anomalously cooled to 0.7°C below average by January 2025, but rebounded to near-average in February.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast a return to ENSO neutral conditions in AMJ (~80-85% confidence), more likely than not remaining neutral through JAS (~55-65% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa conditions are often associated with increased heavy shower activity in the southeastern Caribbean, but the opposite in the northwestern Caribbean through April. ENSO neutral conditions do not contribute to seasonal forecast skill.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2025:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: AMJ, around normal ; JAS, 80% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 80% normal to above normal ; JAS, 85% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a above normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.