Climate Outlook Aruba

PERIOD FEBRUARY, MARCH, APRIL (FMA) AND MAY, JUNE, JULY (MJJ). .

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent months, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) remained around 0.5°C below-average, which equates to borderline La Niņa conditions. Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest a return to ENSO neutral conditions by FMA (with 75% - 90% confidence).

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest a return to ENSO neutral conditions by FMA (with 75% - 90% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņas tend to shift rainfall chances for FMA to above-normal in the southern-most islands of the Caribbean, and below-normal in the Bahamas and Cuba. However, with the forecast ENSO conditions suggesting near neutral, the ENSO effect on rainfall may be weak. Because of the present trend towards ENSO neutral conditions, we can expect increased cloudiness and cooling compared to last year, which should provide near normal temperatures for FMA and MJJ.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JULY 2017: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: FMA, for normal; MJJ, 70% for normal to above normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: FMA, 75% for normal to above normal; MJJ, 75% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs normally from June through November.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.