Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS) AND OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND)

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: The Cool SST anomalies between -0.5°C and -1°C in the Niņo3.4 region of the Pacific associated with a weak La Niņa since August have faded in April, marking an end to the La Niņa event.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest neutral ENSO conditions for JAS. Model confidence for ENSO neutral conditions is ~55% for JAS and ~40- 45% for SON. Most models suggest El Nino conditions to appear later in the year, with a confidence of 60-50% by OND.

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: If neutral, ENSO will exert minimal influence on Caribbean rainfall and temperature. If El Niņo manifests by OND, an enhanced sub-tropical jet would tend to increase precipitation in the north, while increased wind shear further south would reduce precipitation there.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH DECEMBER 2018:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JAS, 80% normal to below normal; OND, 70% for normal to below normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JAS, 80% for normal to above normal; OND, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2018:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.