Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND) AND JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM) A DROUGHT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In the past month, sea-surface temperature (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific decreased to ENSO neutral levels with SST anomalies about 0.25C below average.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest ENSO neutral conditions to persist during OND (with 65-60% confidence) and possibly maintain ENSO neutral through JFM (55% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ENSO neutral phase do not drive seasonal rainfall or temperatures in any direction in the Caribbean, leading to diminished forecast skill during ENSO neutral conditions. Climate conditions in the Caribbean region may be more affected by North Atlantic SST variability during ENSO neutral periods.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH MARCH 2020:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: OND, 75% normal to above normal; JFM, 75% normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: OND, 85% for normal to above normal; JFM, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2019:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019 a near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.