Climate Outlook Aruba

PERIOD APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) AND JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS). .

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent months, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) warmed to slightly above average.

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest warm-neutral ENSO conditions by AMJ (65% confid.) and, possibly, El Niņo conditions by JAS (50% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: With ENSO conditions currently being neutral, little effect on rainfall or temperatures is expected. However, if El Niņo manifests by JAS, odds are in favour of drier weather with less extreme rainfall than usual for that part of the wet season.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH AUG 2017: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 75% for normal to below normal; JAS, 80% for normal to below normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: AMJ, 75% for normal to above normal; JAS, 85% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs normally from June through November.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.