Climate Outlook Aruba

PERIOD MARCH, APRIL, MAY (MAM) AND JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (JJA). .

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent months, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) warmed from 0.5°C below-average, or borderline La Niņa conditions, to near average or ENSO neutral.

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest warm-neutral ENSO conditions by MAM (with 65% - 85% confidence), and nearly the same chance of either ENSO neutral or El Niņo by JJA.

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: However, while ENSO conditions are neutral, little effect on rainfall or temperatures is expected. However, if El Niņo manifests by JJA, odds are in favour of drier weather with less extreme rainfall than usual for the first half of the wet season.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH AUG 2017: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MAM, for normal; JJA, 75% for normal to above normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: MAM, 75% for normal to above normal; JJA, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs normally from June through November.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.