Climate Outlook Aruba

PERIOD JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS) AND OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND). .

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent weeks, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) warmed to borderline El Niņo conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest warm-neutral ENSO conditions during JAS (60% confid.) and neutral or El Niņo conditions by OND (40-45% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ongoing ENSO neutral state will have little effect on rainfall or temperatures. However, if El Niņo manifests by OND, odds are in favour of hotter conditions and less hurricane activity than usual in the later part of the season, as well as drier weather with less extreme rainfall in the south and east of the region.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH DEC 2017: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JAS, normal ; OND, 80% for normal to above normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: JAS, 85% for normal to above normal; OND, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 a near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.