Climate Forecast Aruba
PERIOD NARCH, APRIL, MAY (MAM) AND JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (JJA).
What influences the next season?
Recent observations: A strong El Niņo event peaked in December and
anomalous cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific has started, with Sea
Surface Temperatures (SSTs) around 1.0°C above average.
Model forecast and guidance:
The forecast models indicate an anomalous
cooling of the eastern Pacific, from weak or moderate El Niņo conditions
in MAM (75-85% confidence) to La Niņa or ENSO neutral conditions
(~50% and ~40-45% confidence, resp.) by JJA .
Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures:
El Niņo more often than not is marked by anomalously high air temperatures,
even after El Niņo wanes. A transition out of El Niņo more often than not
is associated with increased chances of heavy showers and higher rainfall totals
in April.
FORECAST VALID THROUGH AUGUST 2024:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba:
MAM, 80% normal to above normal ; JJA, 80% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba:
MAM, 95% normal to above normal ; JJA, 90% normal to above normal.
HURRICANE SEASON 2024:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be an above-normal hurricane season.
On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.
Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded
that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them.
Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how
little activity is predicted.