Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD MAY, JUNE, JULY (MJJ) AND AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO), A DROUGHT WATCH IS IN EFFECT

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Cooler than usual sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 0.5-0.8°C below average have been in place in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4), meaning weak La Niņa conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest a return of ENSO neutral conditions for MJJ (~70-80% confidence), and those neutral conditions could remain for ASO (~45-50% confidence). That said, 35-45% of all models suggest emerging El Niņo conditions, but making ENSO forecasts is notoriously hard between March and May.

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: In some years following a La Niņa, the wet season in the islands may start late, i.e. MJJ can be drier than usual.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH OCTOBER 2018:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 80% normal to below normal; ASO, 75% for normal to below normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 70% for normal to above normal; ASO, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2018:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.