Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD MARCH, APRIL, MAY (MAM) AND JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (JJA).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Weak La Niņa conditions have emerged in December 2024, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) having anomalously cooled to 0.7°C below average by January 2025.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast more likely than not a return to ENSO neutral conditions in MAM and JJA (~55-65% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa conditions are often associated with increased heavy shower activity and rainfall totals in the southeastern Caribbean, but the opposite in the northwestern Caribbean through April.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH AUGUST 2025:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MAM, 80% normal to above normal ; JJA, 75% normal to below normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: MAM, 85% normal to above normal ; JJA, 85% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a near normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.