Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JANUARY, FEBRUARY, MARCH (JFM) AND APRIL, MAY, JUNE (AMJ) A DROUGHT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Cooler than usual sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of 0.5-1°C below average have been in place in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4), meaning weak La Niņa conditions are in place.

Model forecast and guidance: A majority of models suggest La Niņa conditions to be in place until at least FMA (70-75% confidence for La Niņa conditions in DJF), but a likely return to neutral conditions by MAM.

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: A weak La Niņa state will drive chances of drier conditions slightly upwards in the northwest of the region (in particular The Bahamas, Cayman and Cuba), while slightly increasing chances of wetter conditions, with more shower activity in the southeast.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JUNE 2018:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JFM, 80% for normal to above normal; AMJ, normal expectations.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JFM, 75% for normal to above normal; AMJ, normal expectations.

HURRICANE SEASON 2018:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.