Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD MAY, JUNE, JULY (MJJ) AND AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Pacific remain below normal -1.0°C; La Niņa conditions have maintained into the middle of 2022.

Model forecast and guidance: The models forecast indicate La Niņa conditions in MJJ (70-60% confidence), which may maintain into ASO (50-45% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: La Niņa tilts the odds to more rainfall activity in MJJ and ASO, except in the northern Caribbean where it tilts the odds to less rainfall. However, current statistical and dynamical models suggest the opposite for MJJ.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH OCTOBER 2022:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 80% normal to below normal; ASO, 80% normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: MJJ, near normal; ASO, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2022:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2022 a near normal season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.