Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ) AND FEBRUARY, MARCH, APRIL (FMA).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: Cooler than usual sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of about 0.5°C below average have been in place in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4), meaning cold neutral to borderline weak La Niņa conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest ENSO conditions to fluctuate around cold neutral to weak La Niņa (65-70% and 40-45% confidence for La Niņa conditions in NDJ and FMA, respectively).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: A weak La Niņa state will drive chances of drier conditions slightly upwards in the northwest of the region (in particular Bahamas, Cayman and Cuba), while slightly increasing chances of wetter conditions, with more shower activity in the southeast.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH APR 2018:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 80% for normal to above normal; FMA, 80% for normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: NDJ, 80% for normal to above normal; FMA, around normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.