Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON) AND DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY (DJF) A DROUGHT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In the past month, sea-surface temperature (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific decreased to ENSO neutral levels with SST anomalies less than 0.5C above average.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest ENSO neutral conditions to persist during SON (with 60-65% confidence) and possibly maintain ENSO neutral through DJF (50% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ENSO neutral phase offers little contribution to seasonal rainfall or temperature prediction in any part of the Caribbean other than reducing confidence in the forecast. Climate conditions in the Caribbean region may be more affected by North Atlantic SST variability during ENSO neutral periods.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH FEBRUARY 2020:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: SON, around normal; DJF, around normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: SON, 80% for normal to above normal; DJF, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2019:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019 a near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.