Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (JJA) AND SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
Recent observations:A strong El Niņo event which peaked in December in the eastern equatorial Pacific has subsided, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) having anomalously cooled to average by mid-May.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models indicate further cooling to either ENSO neutral (~50-70% confidence) or La Niņa conditions in JJA (~20-50% confidence) and likely La Niņa conditions by SON (~55-85% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: A transition out of El Niņo is often associated with increased chances of heavy showers, higher rainfall totals and air temperatures in JJA. La Niņa conditions in SON tends to increase Atlantic Hurricane Season activity in its second half.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH NOVEMBER 2024:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JJA, 80% normal to above normal ; SON, 90% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JJA, 95% normal to above normal ; SON, 85% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2024:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be an above-normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.