Climate Outlook Aruba

PERIOD AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO) AND NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ). .

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In recent weeks, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) were at borderline neutral to weak El Niņo level (+0.5°C).

Model forecast and guidance: Most models, suggest temperature anomalies to remain slightly positive by ASO and NDJ, favouring neutral (50-60% confidence) over weak El Niņo (around 35% confid.)..

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The ongoing ENSO neutral state will have little effect on rainfall or temperatures. However, in unlikely event that El Niņo does manifest, odds are in favour of hotter conditions and less hurricane activity than usual in the later part of the season, as well as drier weather with less extreme rainfall in the south and east of the region.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JAN 2018: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: ASO, 75% for normal to above normal; NDJ, 80% for normal to above normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: ASO, 85% for normal to above normal; NDJ, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 a slightly above normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.