Climate Outlook Aruba


Climate Forecast

What influences the next season? El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: ENSO neutral conditions; sea-surface has warmed to around 0.3 to 0.5°C above avg. in the equatorial E. Pacific (NINO3.4).

Model forecast and guidance: Most models indicate either warm-neutral or a weak to moderate El Niņo conditions, with 45% chance of El Niņo by JJA and September-October-November (SON).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: As ENSO conditions are currently neutral, no impact on Caribbean rainfall is expected. However, with a possible El Niņo on forecast, chances for drier than usual conditions in the southern Caribbean and Guianas would increase. An appearing El Niņo tends to increase temperatures 2 to 3 months later, boosting chances of a hot August to October period.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH NOV 2017: Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JJA, 75% for normal to below normal; SON, 70% for normal to below normal. Temperature expectations for Aruba: JJA, 80% for normal to above normal; SON, 85% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2017: Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2017 a near normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that despite the quiet forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.