Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (JJA) AND SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER (SON).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Weak La Niņa conditions have subsided in February, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) currently running near average, in other words, ENSO neutral conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast ENSO neutral conditions in JJA (~75% confidence), and a chance for remaining neutral through SON (~45-50% confidence), though there is a slightly lower chance that La Niņa conditions might return (~30-40% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: ENSO neutral conditions do not contribute to seasonal forecast skill, whereas a return to La Niņa would increase the odds of a wetter SON and the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season Activity would unlikely be quiet.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH NOVEMBER 2025:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JJA, 80% normal to below normal ; SON, 75% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JJA, 80% normal to above normal ; SON, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a above normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.