Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER (JAS) AND OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER (OND).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations:A strong El Niņo event which peaked in December in the eastern equatorial Pacific has subsided, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) having anomalously cooled to average by mid-May.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models indicate further cooling to either ENSO neutral (~35-65% confidence) or La Niņa conditions in JAS (~35-65% confidence) and likely La Niņa conditions by OND (~55-85% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: A transition into La Niņa is often associated with increased chances of heavy showers, higher rainfall totals and air temperatures in JAS as well as increased Atlantic Hurricane Season activity from September onwards.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH DECEMBER 2024:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: JAS, 80% normal to above normal ; OND, 90% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: JAS, 90% normal to above normal ; OND, 80% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2024:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be an above-normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.