Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD MAY, JUNE, JULY (MJJ) AND AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO).

What influences the next season?
Recent observations: Weak La Niņa conditions have subsided in February, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) currently running near average, in other words, ENSO neutral conditions.

Model forecast and guidance: The forecast models forecast ENSO neutral conditions in MJJ (~80-85% confidence), slightly more likely than not remaining neutral through ASO (~50-55% confidence).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: ENSO neutral conditions do not contribute to seasonal forecast skill, but can imply that the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season will unlikely be quiet.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH OCTOBER 2025:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 80% normal to below normal ; ASO, 75% normal to above normal
Temperature expectations for Aruba: MJJ, 85% normal to above normal ; ASO, 85% normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2025:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be a above normal hurricane season.

On average we see 14 tropical storms and 10 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.