Climate Forecast Aruba

PERIOD AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER (ASO) AND NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY (NDJ).

Climate Forecast


What influences the next season?
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: In the past month, sea-surface temperature (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific anomalously decreased to a marginal El Niņo level with SST anomalies about 0.5°C above average.

Model forecast and guidance: Most models suggest ENSO neutral conditions to develop during ASO (with 55-60% confidence) and possibly maintain ENSO neutral through NDJ (40-50% confid.).

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: The return to neutral ENSO phase tends to decrease forecast skill with no real signal of this driver of rainfall or temperature in any part of the Caribbean. In such situations, climate conditions in the Caribbean region may be more affected by North Atlantic SST variability.

FORECAST VALID THROUGH JANUARY 2020:
Rainfall expectations for Aruba: ASO, around normal; NDJ, 75% normal to above normal.
Temperature expectations for Aruba: ASO, 80% for normal to above normal; NDJ, 80% for normal to above normal.

HURRICANE SEASON 2019:
Hurricane season for the Atlantic region runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Experts expect for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2019 a slightly below normal season.

On average we see 11 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes.

Keep in mind that even when we have a below average forecast, residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Residents are reminded to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.