Forecast Discussion

Forecast valid from 27/07/2017 to 28/07/2017

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is along 58W from
11N-24N, moving westward at about 13 kt. This wave continues to
exhibit a pretty well-defined cloud pattern on latest satellite
imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring
within the moisture area north of 13N, while the activity is
isolated south of 13N. The wave is forecast to move across the
Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean Sea today, and
move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean Sea though Friday
night, then through the central Caribbean Saturday and Saturday
night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible
with this wave.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the western
Caribbean from 12N-16N west of 79W. Similar activity is developing
north of 18N between Jamaica and 84W due to an upper trough that
trails southward to over Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea from an
upper level low located between the central Bahamas and Cuba.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms being steered by the easterly
trades are elsewhere over the basin. The eastern extension of the
Pacific monsoon trough in combination with additional instability
provided by an upper level low near 12N81W is expected to set-off
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean
Sea later this morning. The pressure gradient throughout supports
15-25 kt trade winds across the sea, with the strongest winds
over the central Caribbean.

Next update will be issued 28/07/2017 16:00UTC