Forecast Discussion



09/16/2019
Discussion valid from 16/09/2019 to 17/09/2019

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba http://www.meteo.aw

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Humberto is near 29.7N 77.3W at 16/0900 UTC or 660 nm W
of Bermuda moving NE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt
with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection
extends outward from the center 270 nm NE quad, 180 nm SE quad, 90 nm
SW quad and 120 nm NW quad.

...TROPICAL WAVES EAST OF 70W...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 28W S of 19N,
moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N
between 26W-33W.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure along a tropical wave in the central tropical
Atlantic. A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 09N41W along a
wave that extends along 41W from 04N-16N. The low and wave are
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
06N-13N between 38W-46W. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.

A tropical wave moving through the Lesser Antilles today has its
axis along 58/59W from 06N-22N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
to numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
from 12N-17N between 57W-63W, affecting islands from St. Vincent
to Guadeloupe. Barbados recently recorded sustained winds of 31 kt
at 0800 UTC. Scattered showers are over the Lesser Antilles elsewhere
from 11N-19N. The wave will continue to bring enhanced rain to the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean today.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 68/69W
from 19N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the wave axis from 15N-18N and also inland
over Venezuela.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Relatively dry air covers the central and NW Caribbean. Deep-
layered ridging is over Cuba. A 1016 mb surface high is analyzed
near 23N83W. Scattered showers and tstorms cover portions of the
SW Caribbean and Central America, including the waters near
eastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua as well as the waters
north of western Colombia and eastern Panama. The latest ASCAT
pass from Sunday evening depicts moderate to fresh trades in the
south-central Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate much of the basin.
Long period northerly swell will starting pushing through Atlantic
passages by early Tuesday. A tropical wave entering the central
Caribbean will move through the western Caribbean by late Tue, and
west of the basin by mid week. Scattered thunderstorms and gusty
winds accompany another tropical wave currently impacting the
Lesser Antilles. This wave will move through the eastern Caribbean
today, across the central Caribbean through mid week, and into
the western Caribbean by late week.

Looking ahead, low pressure developing east of the area will move
toward the Atlantic offshore waters of the Leeward Islands by late
Friday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

Next update will be issued 17/09/2019