Forecast Discussion

Forecast valid from 19/10/2018 to 20/10/2018

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13N43W to 05N45W moving
W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are ahead of the southern end of
the wave from 05-06N between 46W-48W. A surface trough is along
36W from 08N-15N. The southernmost part of the wave along 45W
moved comparatively faster than the northernmost part of the
tropical wave. This surface trough represents that part of the
wave that has remained as the wave became stretched out on a NE-
to-SW line. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 11N to 14N
between 29W and 40W.


An upper level trough is across the NE part of the Caribbean Sea
to Hispaniola, with broad upper level cyclonic flow extending to
the Cayman Islands, and as far west as near Cozumel. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward from 70W eastward. An upper level trough also extends
from the Windward Passage toward NW Venezuela that is along 70W.
Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical wave,
scattered moderate convection is over the NE Caribbean from
14N-20N between 79W-85W.

Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the region through
Tuesday. Highest winds are expected near the Windward Passage,
south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba through Saturday.

Next update will be issued 20/10/2018