Forecast Discussion



09/25/2017
Forecast valid from 25/09/2017 to 26/09/2017

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba http://www.meteo.aw

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Maria is centered near 30.8N 73.0W at 25/1200 UTC or
about 540 km south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina,
moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm
of the center mainly over the east semicircle.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.1N 49.4W at 25/0900 UTC or
about 791 nm east of Bermuda. Lee is currently stationary.
Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 30N-33N between
39W-51W.

...TROPICAL WAVES E of 70 W...

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N31W to 08N33W, moving
west at around 10 kt. Little convection is associated with the
wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N64W to 09N64W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of 16N
between 60W-65W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is approaching eastern Puerto Rico. Southwest flow
aloft prevails west of 70W, and a weak pressure pattern remains in
place across the central and western Caribbean. A surface trough
extends from 18N72W to 10N73W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed to the west of the wave's axis. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across the western half of the
basin while moderate to fresh winds prevail east of 75W.
A surface trough was analyzed from 16N75W to 11N74W and
continues to be the focus for scattered showers between
70W- 80W.

Next update will be issued 26/09/2017 16:00UTC