Forecast Discussion

Discussion valid from 22/11/2019 to 23/11/2019

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba

Tropical Storm Sebastien is near 24.8N 57.0W at 22/0900 UTC, or
about 520 nm NE of the northern Leeward Islands, moving ENE at 13
kt. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is within 330 nm
of the center in the NE quadrant. Satellite imagery indicates the
center is exposed with all convection to the NE of the center.
An ENE to NE motion is expected during the next few days,
along with gradual weakening.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32/33W, moving W
around 10 kt. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection
is seen from 00N-09N between 27W-36W. Isolated moderate convection
is elsewhere from 00N-10N between 25W-39W.

Another, weaker tropical wave is along 42/43W from 05N-13N,
moving W-NW around 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 13N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

A cold front extends from 20N62W to Puerto Rico to 18N71W.
The front continues as stationary to Jamaica. A surface
trough extends southwestward from 21N56W to 17N62W to 15N70W.
Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are in between the
front and the trough from 14N-18N between 60W-75W. The latest
ASCAT pass shows strong N-NE winds in the Mona and Windward
Passages, and south of the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

The front in the NE Caribbean will completely stall and weaken
through tonight. Fresh NE winds will prevail across the waters
N of the front today, with the strongest winds expected through
the Windward and Mona passages, as well as S of the Dominican
Republic, as high pressure builds behind the front. Easterly
trades will freshen across the south-central Caribbean early
next week, increasing to strong Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Next update will be issued 23/11/2019