Forecast Discussion

Forecast valid from 25/09/2018 to 26/09/2018

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba


Subtropical Depression Leslie was centered near 31.9N 46.2W at
0900 UTC, or about 1015 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SE at 7 kt.
A faster east to northeast motion is expected later today and
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north by Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is limited to the eastern
semicircle but extends outward up to 330 nm from the center.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 03N-17N,
moving west at 15 kt. A 700 mb trough associated with this wave
is well depicted in model guidance, and there is evidence of
cyclonic curvature in the winds near the surface. Deep convection
is limited due to the presence of Saharan air, although a small
area of isolated moderate convection is present from 11N-14N
between the coast of Africa and the wave axis.

A tropical wave is along 57W from 03N-17N, moving west at 15 kt.
The wave corresponds with a moisture maximum in TPW imagery.
Scattered showers are located from 08N-12N between 52W-59W.


A surface trough moving slowly westward over the eastern
Caribbean extends from 18N62W to 12N63W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
continues to enhance scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection in the SW Caribbean from 10N-14N between 77W-83W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Belize and the NW
Caribbean to the east of Belize. Expect fresh to strong
winds over the central Caribbean through midweek, with
moderate to fresh winds thereafter through Friday.

Next update will be issued 26/09/2017 16:00UTC