Forecast Discussion



06/22/2018
Forecast valid from 21/06/2018 to 22/06/2018

Departamento Meteorologico Aruba http://www.meteo.aw

...TROPICAL WAVES E OF 70 WEST...

A tropical wave is along 24W from 03N-12N. The Hovmoller Diagram
shows the westward propagation of the wave, that coincides with a
modest surge of moistened air based on the TPW product. Convection
is limited near the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 3N-11N, moving W at 20
knots. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture
surge on the TPW animation. Scattered moderate convection is
noted where the wave meets the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is along 42W from 3N-11N, moving W at about 15
knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product.
Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the
wave's axis from 6N-8N between 38W-45W.

Another tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis
is along 58W from 6N-17N, moving W at about 10 knots. The TPW
animation shows a surge of moistened air near the wave's axis. A
cluster of moderate convection is already affecting Trinidad and
Tobago. Scattered moderate convection is seen near 13N58W, and
near the southern end of the wave's axis, from 6N-8N between 55W-
58W. Moisture associated with this feature will continue to affect
the Windward Islands this morning. The wave will then move across
the eastern Caribbean this afternoon through Friday night.
The associated moisture is forecast by the GFS computer model to
spread out reaching the Leeward Islands later today and tonight,
and Puerto Rico on Friday.

SYNOPSIS:

A tropical wave passing south of Hispaniola will move into the
western Caribbean today. A tropical wave along 59W will reach
the Lesser Antilles later this morning. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Friday night through Sunday
night. Trade winds across the south-central Caribbean will
strengthen tonight, then expand in coverage across the basin
this weekend as high pressure builds in the central Atlantic.
Seas will build to 10-11 ft in the central Caribbean Saturday
night through Monday night.

Next update will be issued 22/06/2018 16:00UTC