25/09/2017 INFORMATION BULLETIN NR. 3 issued on Harvey. http://www.meteo.aw/press2.php

Buki Informativo di Horcan, Hurricane Information Booklet

NHC IMAGE
NHC Atlantic

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


09/25/2017 01:27 PM
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 251727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina, and on Hurricane Lee, located over the
central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

09/25/2017 10:37 AM
Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)
...LEE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 25 the center of Lee was located near 30.8, -49.9 with movement SSW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
09/25/2017 10:37 AM
Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 30
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 251437
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

...LEE BEGINNING TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 49.9W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 49.9 West. Lee is moving toward
the south-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  The hurricane is expected
to turn toward the west by Tuesday and toward the west-northwest by
Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Lee is a tiny hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


09/25/2017 10:37 AM
Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 30
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 251437
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  49.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  49.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  49.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.6N  50.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.6N  52.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N  53.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 31.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.4N  54.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.9N  50.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 45.0N  39.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N  49.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
 

09/25/2017 10:45 AM
Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 30
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 251445
TCDAT4

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017

While Lee is still displaying a distinct 10-15 nm eye in the
GOES-16 visible imagery this morning, the deep convection of the
cirrus canopy is lopsided with most of the cold cloud tops west of
the center.  This may be due to moderate vertical shear induced by
an upper-low southwest of the hurricane.  The SAB, TAFB, and
Advanced Dvorak Technique intensity estimates have not changed, so
80 kt is retained for the maximum sustained winds.

Lee is now moving again, with a 12-h motion of south-southwest at
2 kt.  As a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Lee, the
hurricane should turn toward the west on Tuesday and west-northwest
on Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed.  Starting in about
three days, Lee should begin recurvature toward the northeast,
accelerating to over 20 kt by day 5 as the hurricane enters the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is shifted
some toward the west through day 4, toward the tightly-packed
global and hurricane model guidance.

The moderate vertical shear affecting Lee and some upwelled cool
water under the hurricane may cause slightly weakening shortly.
After Lee moves back toward warmer water, the hurricane may
restrengthen some, but it is not anticipated that the system will
reach major hurricane status.  The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF, LGEM,
and COAMPS guidance.

Lee remains a tiny hurricane, though no recent information has been
available about its wind radii.  The official size forecast
anticipates a slight increase in tropical storm force and hurricane
force wind radii, based upon the RVCN size consensus method.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 30.8N  49.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 30.6N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 30.6N  52.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 31.0N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 31.5N  54.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 33.4N  54.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 37.9N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 45.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea


09/25/2017 10:38 AM
Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 251438
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LANDSEA                                                  

09/25/2017 10:52 AM
Hurricane Lee Graphics
Hurricane Lee 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 14:52:46 GMT

Hurricane Lee 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 15:24:34 GMT
09/25/2017 01:39 PM
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 31.4, -73.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
09/25/2017 01:39 PM
Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 38A
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 251738
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 73.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
to to 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 73.0 West. Maria is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm
Tuesday night.

Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 90 miles (150 km), primarily to the east of center, and tropical-
storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).  NOAA
buoy 41002, located about 100 miles west-northwest of Maria's
center, recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area beginning Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast
of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing
along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today.
Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the northern coast of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


09/25/2017 10:40 AM
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 38
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 251439
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  72.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  72.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N  73.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.8N  73.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.9N  73.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.8N  73.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.7N  73.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.7N  71.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N  72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



09/25/2017 10:41 AM
Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 38
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 251440
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Maria's structure has
changed considerably since yesterday.  Deep convection is primarily
confined to the eastern semicircle of the circulation and the radius
of maximum winds has significantly increased. After not finding many
SFMR winds over 60 kt during the overnight flights, the latest Air
Force Reserve Aircraft measured SFMR winds of 65-70 kt about 90 n mi
from the center over the eastern portion of the circulation. As a
result, the initial wind speed is set at 70 kt, a slight
readjustment from the 1200 UTC estimate indicated in the
intermediate advisory. The 50-kt and 64-kt wind radii have also been
adjusted outward primarily over the eastern semicircle based on the
aircraft data.

The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as that in the
previous advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly
shear, and dry air are expected to cause gradual weakening over the
next couple of days. The global model guidance suggests Maria will
remain a strong tropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward
later in the forecast period. Therefore, the NHC forecast is a
little higher than the statistical guidance at those times.

Maria continues to move northward or 360/6 kt. Although Maria is
being steered northward between a mid- to upper-level low over the
southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the
southwestern Atlantic, the hurricane's forward motion should remain
quite slow as it is currently being impeded by a mid-level ridge
over the northeastern United States. A large mid-latitude trough is
forecast to move across the Great Lakes region and into the
northeast United States by the end of the week. This feature should
cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward after
72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through 48
hours, but there are some differences in Maria's forward speed after
that time. The NHC forecast track is near the middle of the guidance
envelope through 48 h and is in between the ECMWF and various
consensus models later in the period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the
North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a
Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North
Carolina.

3. Swells from Maria are occurring along the coast of the
southeastern United States and will be increasing along the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. These swells
will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in
these areas through much of the week. For more information, please
monitor information from your local National Weather Service office
at www.weather.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 31.2N  72.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 31.8N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 32.9N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 33.8N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 34.7N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 35.7N  71.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


09/25/2017 10:40 AM
Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

000
FONT15 KNHC 251440
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   7(19)   1(20)   X(20)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   5(15)   7(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   5(16)   7(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   6(18)   9(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  1   6( 7)   8(15)   7(22)   8(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  5  11(16)  18(34)  10(44)   8(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  4   5( 9)   8(17)   5(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  5   8(13)  11(24)   7(31)   6(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  4   7(11)   9(20)   6(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  3   4( 7)   7(14)   3(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  3   4( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

09/25/2017 01:43 PM
Hurricane Maria Graphics
Hurricane Maria 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 17:43:25 GMT

Hurricane Maria 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
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Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
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Hurricane Maria Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
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Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
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Local Statement for Wakefield, VA
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017
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Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC
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