18/08/2017 INFORMATION BULLETIN NR. 2 issued on Harvey. http://www.meteo.aw/press2.php

Buki Informativo di Horcan, Hurricane Information Booklet

NHC IMAGE
NHC Atlantic

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico


08/18/2017 01:42 PM
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located just west of the Windward Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 600 miles east-northeast of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. However,
upper-level winds are becoming less favorable, and the chances for
a tropical cyclone to form are diminishing. The low is expected to
move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days,
and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable for some
development early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

08/18/2017 04:35 PM
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.4, -62.9 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
08/18/2017 04:35 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 6
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 182035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central American and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. Harvey is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the eastern
Caribbean Sea tonight and through the central Caribbean Sea
Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


08/18/2017 04:34 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 182034
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  62.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  62.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  62.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.6N  65.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N  69.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N  73.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.5N  76.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 17.5N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



08/18/2017 04:36 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 6
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 182036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Again, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,
with the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but
poorly organized, convective area.  Earlier reports from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting
an increased intensity.  However, due to uncertainties in how
representative these measurements were, no appreciable change in
the central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the
initial intensity is held at 35 kt.

The initial motion is 275/18.  A strong low- to mid-level ridge
north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion
for the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern
to the western Caribbean Sea during this time.  After 72 h, a
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central
America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico.  The new
forecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but
there were only minor changes in the direction.  It should be noted
that there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey
might get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale
models not bringing the center back over the water on the latest
runs.

The current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and
thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow
strengthening during this time.  However, the GFS and ECMWF again
forecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and
the rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker
cyclone.  This lowers the confidence in intensification.  After
48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the
main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter.  The
intensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in
72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 13.4N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 13.6N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 13.9N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 14.2N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 14.5N  76.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 17.5N  88.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven


08/18/2017 04:35 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 182035
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   2(13)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  26(27)   5(32)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  31(39)   1(40)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   3(19)   X(19)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

08/18/2017 04:43 PM
Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
Tropical Storm Harvey 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 20:43:51 GMT

Tropical Storm Harvey 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 21:25:37 GMT